Category Archives: forecast

Balance Point: The US Cruises Towards (Net) Energy Independence

The US is now exporting so much crude oil, petroleum products, coal, and natural gas (both by pipeline and LNG), that the country’s net energy dependency has now fallen below 10% of its total consumption, in the first five months of 2017. The trend towards (net) energy independence is a retort to the historic assumption […]

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The Risk of ‘Hot’ Inflation

Dear Readers: I’m currently writing a long-form post twice a month now for Chris Martenson’s excellent website. Accordingly, I’ll be publishing the first (and free) part of these essays here at เกมยิงปลาสุดมันส์ www.dongythoxuanduong.com. Enjoy. — Gregor Ideological deflationists and inflationists alike find themselves both facing the same problem. The former still carry the torch for a […]

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A Punch to the Mouth – Food Price Volatility Hits the World

Dear Readers: I’m currently writing a long-form post twice a month now for Chris Martenson’s excellent wesbsite. Accordingly, I’ll be publishing the first (and free) part of these essays here at เกมยิงปลาสุดมันส์ www.dongythoxuanduong.com. Enjoy. — Gregor ___________________________________________________________________________ Perfect Storms 2011 was an abysmal year for the global insurance industry, which had to cover yet another enormous […]

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Tail Risk and Embalming Fluid, in 2012

I feel motivated today to write about global markets, and especially the lingering fear that’s sure to carry over from 2011 to 2012. The last 18 months have supplied historians with every reason to believe that a replay of the 2008 financial crisis was about to unfold. The difference being that the private sector debt […]

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Old Oil Depletes, And the New Oil is Slow

Exxon Mobil has released its 2012 Outlook for Energy: A view to 2040 report. I actually find these industry forecasts helpful, especially for their nuanced contrast with comparable long-range reports from EIA Washington and IEA Paris. For example, I find Exxon’s view that oil will retain its role as the primary energy source—not to be […]

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Crouching Oil, Hidden Coal

The bible for energy data, the BP Statistical Review, was released yesterday and I continue to make up charts using the fresh news. Today I update Global Energy Use by Source 2009, which shows the contribution to total world energy by source, and without question there are changes here worth a comment. But before getting […]

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Cover to Cover: Drowning in Cheap Oil Forever

Here’s a story that I’m obligated to cover: Newsweek Magazine almost 10 years to the week has published a cover story on Oil that echoes the now (in) famous Economist cover, Drowning in Oil. The latter was published on March 4th? 1999, and the recent Newsweek story Cheap Oil Forever appears April 20th 2009. Americans […]

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Incoming

เกมยิงปลาสุดมันส์ www.dongythoxuanduong.com Monthly for March, titled Saga North America and published Tuesday this week, takes an in-depth look at future North American Oil supply. It’s not a pretty picture. In fact, I’d advise politicians to start paying attention.? Not only for the broader issues involved, but because I’m now forecasting a mammoth spike in the price […]

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Black Swans and Petrostates: เกมยิงปลาสุดมันส์ www.dongythoxuanduong.com Monthly

My February newsletter, Black Swans and Petrostates, has now been published. As the financial crisis ravages the global banking system, my research shows that the impact on Petrostates of last year’s oil price volatility and the subsequent price lows is yet to be revealed. Moreover, I come to some surprising conclusions which suggest underdeveloped and […]

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When Inflation Comes

When inflation comes, it will come like a lone Athenian foot-messenger. Across enemy lines, during war and debate. The armies, horses, and voices too loud and myriad to either hear, or care. -Gregor

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